El Niño 2026: WMO Warns of Peak in December

21 Oct 2026

Tags: Geography   Physical Geography   Climatology

Source: The Indian Express

Context: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning: The ongoing El Niño is expected to peak in December 2026, persist through February 2027 and potentially rank among the strongest events since 1950.

• Global impact: Above-average temperatures are expected across large parts of the world, with an increased risk of droughts, floods and shifts in normal rainfall patterns.

El Niño: Key Features

• Definition: El Niño is the periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, influencing global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.
• ENSO phases: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has three phases — El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool) and neutral conditions.
• Threshold: El Niño is generally declared when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain at least 0.5°C above normal over a sustained period, alongside relevant atmospheric changes.
• Frequency: El Niño events recur irregularly, typically every two to seven years.

Impact on India

• Weak southwest monsoon: India's 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, while the 2026 monsoon was the fourth driest since 2001, according to the article.
• Agricultural and water stress: Reduced rainfall during the second half of the monsoon affected several States, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, which declared drought; Maharashtra imposed water cuts of 10% in many districts.
• Temperature rise: El Niño can raise temperatures and increase the risk of heat stress, affecting agriculture, water availability and electricity demand.

Global Impacts

• Drought and floods: El Niño often suppresses rainfall in India and several other regions, increasing drought risks, while shifting global rainfall patterns can cause flooding elsewhere.
• European heatwaves: Europe experienced exceptionally high summer temperatures, including record-breaking heat in France, Spain and the United Kingdom; rivers such as the Danube, Rhine and Thames experienced low water levels.
• Ocean warming: WMO reported that sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, used to assess ENSO conditions, were around 2.5°C above normal in August, reflecting intensifying El Niño conditions.

Way Forward

• Climate preparedness: Strengthen drought management, water conservation, crop planning and heat-action plans in vulnerable regions.
• Early-warning systems: Use WMO forecasts and seasonal climate predictions to prepare for rainfall variability and extreme temperatures.
• Agricultural resilience: Promote climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation, drought-resistant varieties and contingency plans for rainfall deficits.